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\begin{document}

\title{Future climate changes under different scenarios and their effects on
runoff in the upper Taohe River Basin}



\author[1]{zhen wang}%
\author[2]{Meixue Yang}%
\author[3]{xuejia wang}%
\author[3]{lizhen cheng}%
\author[3]{guoning wan}%
\author[1]{yongshang li}%
\affil[1]{Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou Branch}%
\affil[2]{Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute}%
\affil[3]{Chinese Academy of Sciences}%


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  \date{June 11, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Climate changes may pose challenges to water management. Simulation and
projection of climate-runoff processes through hydrological models are
essential means to assess the impact of global climate change on runoff
variations. This study focuses on the upper Taohe River Basin which is
an important water sources for arid and semi-arid regions in Northwest
China. In order to assess the impacts of environmental changes, outputs
from a regional climate model and the SWAT hydrological model were used
to analyze the future climate change scenarios to water resources
quantitatively. The examined climate changes scenarios results showed
that average annual temperature from 2020 to 2099 in this area exhibits
a consistent warming trend with different warming rates, at rates of
0.10\selectlanguage{ngerman}°C/10a, 0.20°C /10a and 0.54°C /10a under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5(Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), The value of
precipitation experiences different trends under different emission
scenarios. Under the RCP2.6, average precipitation would decrease at a
rate of 3.69 mm/10a, while under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, it would
increase at rates of 4.97 mm/10a and 12.28 mm/10a, respectively. The
calibration and validation results in three in-site observations (Luqu,
Xiabagou and Minxian) in the upper Taohe River Basin showed that SWAT
hydrological model is able to produce an acceptable simulation of runoff
at monthly time-step. In response to future climate changes, projected
runoff change would present different decreasing trends. Under RCP2.6,
annual average runoff would experience a progress of fluctuating trend,
with a rate of-0.6×108m3 by 5-year moving average method; Under the
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, annual average runoff would show steadily increasing
trends, with rates of 0.23×108m3 and 0.16×108m3 by 5-year moving average
method. The total runoff in the future would prone to drought and flood
disasters. Overall, this research results would provide a scientific
reference for reginal water resources management on the long term.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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