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Ecological Super-Spreaders Drive Host-Range Oscillations: Omicron and Risk-Space for Emerging infectious Disease
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  • Walter A. Boeger,
  • Daniel R. Brooks,
  • Valeria Trivellone,
  • Salvatore Agosta,
  • Eric Hoberg
Walter A. Boeger
Universidade Federal do Parana Setor de Ciencias Biologicas
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Daniel R. Brooks
Eötvös Loránd Research Network Centre for Ecological Research Institute of Evolution 1121 Budapest Konkoly-Thege Miklós út 29-33 Hungary
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Valeria Trivellone
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Prairie Research Institute
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Salvatore Agosta
Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study
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Eric Hoberg
University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Veterinary Medicine
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Abstract

Summary: The unusual genetic diversity of the Omicron strain has led to speculation about its origin. The mathematical modeling platform developed for the Stockholm Paradigm (SP) indicates strongly that it has retro-colonized humans from an unidentified animal reservoir originally infected by humans. The relationship between Omicron and all other SARS-CoV-2 variants indicates oscillations among hosts, a core part of the SP. Such oscillations result from the emergence of novel variants following colonization of new hosts, replenishing and expanding the risk space for disease emergence. The SP predicts that pathogens colonize new hosts using pre-existing capacities. Those events are thus predictable to a certain extent. Novel variants emerge after a colonization and are not predictable. This makes it imperative to take proactive measures for anticipating emerging infectious diseases (EID) and mitigating their impact. The SP suggests a policy protocol to accomplish this goal. This is the DAMA Protocol: comprising DOCUMENT to detect pathogens before they emerge in new places or colonize new hosts; ASSESS to determine risk; MONITOR to detect changes in pathogen populations that increase the risk of outbreaks; and ACT to prevent outbreaks when possible and minimize their impact when they occur.
21 Jan 2022Submitted to Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
21 Jan 2022Submission Checks Completed
21 Jan 2022Assigned to Editor
29 Jan 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
18 Feb 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
03 Mar 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Major
16 Mar 20221st Revision Received
17 Mar 2022Submission Checks Completed
17 Mar 2022Assigned to Editor
23 Mar 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
06 Apr 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
08 Apr 2022Editorial Decision: Accept
12 Apr 2022Published in Transboundary and Emerging Diseases. 10.1111/tbed.14557