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Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera
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  • Maria Hällfors,
  • Juha Pöyry,
  • Janne Heliölä,
  • Ilmari Kohonen,
  • Mikko Kuussaari,
  • Reima Leinonen,
  • Reto Schmucki,
  • Pasi Sihvonen,
  • Marjo Saastamoinen
Maria Hällfors
University of Helsinki
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Juha Pöyry
Finnish Environment Institute (Syke)
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Janne Heliölä
Finnish Environment Institute
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Ilmari Kohonen
University of Helsinki
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Mikko Kuussaari
Finnish Environment Institute
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Reima Leinonen
Kainuu Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment
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Reto Schmucki
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
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Pasi Sihvonen
University of Helsinki
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Marjo Saastamoinen
University of Helsinki
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Abstract

Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (47%) -used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends was observed for the minority of species (13%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for Boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition.

Peer review status:IN REVISION

15 Dec 2020Submitted to Ecology Letters
16 Dec 2020Assigned to Editor
16 Dec 2020Submission Checks Completed
08 Jan 2021Reviewer(s) Assigned
15 Feb 2021Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
16 Feb 2021Editorial Decision: Revise Major