Influenza A(H3N2) viruses dominated early in the 2022–23 influenza season in Europe, followed by higher circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B viruses. The VEBIS primary care network estimated the influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) using a multicentre test-negative study. Primary care practitioners collected information and specimens from patients consulting with acute respiratory infection. We measured VE against any influenza, influenza (sub)type and clade, by age group, by influenza vaccine target group and by time since vaccination, using logistic regression. We included 38,058 patients, of which 3,786 were influenza A(H3N2), 1,548 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 3,275 influenza B cases. Against influenza A(H3N2), VE was 36% (95%CI: 25–45) among all ages, ranged between 30% and 52% by age group and target group. VE against influenza A(H3N2) clade 2b was 38% (95% CI: 25–49). Overall, VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 46% (95%CI: 35–56) and ranged between 29% and 59% by age group and target group. VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 clade 5a.2a was 56% (95% CI: 46–65) and 79% (95% CI: 64–88) against clade 5a.2a.1. VE against influenza B was 76% (95%CI: 70–81), overall; 84%, 72% and 71% among 0–14-year-olds 15–64-year-olds and those in the influenza vaccination target group, respectively. VE against influenza B with a position 197-mutation of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was 79% (95% CI: 73–85) and 90% (95% CI: 85–94) without this mutation. The 2022–23 end-of-season results from the VEBIS network at primary care level showed high VE among children and against influenza B, with lower VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2).

Background. Despite the known relatively high disease burden of influenza, data are lacking regarding a critical epidemiological indicator, the case-fatality ratio. Our objective was to infer age-group and influenza (sub)type specific values by combining modelled estimates of symptomatic incidence and influenza-attributable mortality. Methods. The setting was the Netherlands, 2011/12 through 2019/20 seasons. Sentinel surveillance data from general practitioners and laboratory testing were synthesised to supply age-group specific estimates of incidence of symptomatic infection, and ecological additive modelling was used to estimated influenza-attributable deaths. These were combined in an Bayesian inferential framework to estimate case-fatality ratios for influenza A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, per 5-year age-group. Results. Case-fatality estimates were highest for influenza A(H3N2) followed by influenza B and then A(H1N1)pdm09, and were highest for the 85+ years age-group, at 4.76% (95% credible interval (CrI): 4.52-5.01%) for A(H3N2), followed by influenza B at 4.08% (95% CrI: 3.77-4.39%) and A(H1N1)pdm09 at 2.51% (95% CrI: 2.09-2.94%). For 55-59 through 85+ years, the case-fatality risk was estimated to double with every 3.7 years of age. Conclusions. These estimated case-fatality ratios, per influenza sub(type) and per age-group, constitute valuable information for public health decision-making, for assessing the retrospective and prospective value of preventative interventions such as vaccination, and for health economic evaluations.

Background: In 2021–22, influenza A viruses dominated in Europe. The I-MOVE primary care network conducted a multicentre test-negative study to measure influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Methods: Primary care practitioners collected information on patients presenting with acute respiratory infection. Cases were influenza A(H3N2) or A(H1N1)pdm09 RT-PCR positive and controls were influenza virus negative. We calculated VE using logistic regression, adjusting for study site, age, sex, onset date, and presence of chronic conditions. Results: Between week 40 2021 and week 20 2022, we included over 11,000 patients of whom 253 and 1595 were positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2), respectively. Overall VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 75% (95%CI: 43–89) and 81% (95%CI: 44–93) among those aged 15–64 years. Overall VE against influenza A(H3N2) was 29% (95%CI: 12–42) and 25% (95%CI: -41–61), 33% (95%CI: 14–49) and 26% (95% CI: -22 to 55) among those aged 0–14, 15–64 and over 65 years, respectively. The A(H3N2) VE among the influenza vaccination target group was 20% (95%CI: -6–39). All 53 sequenced A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses belonged to clade 6B.1A.5a.1. Among 410 sequenced influenza A(H3N2) viruses, all but 8 belonged to clade 3C.2a1b.2a.2. Discussion: Despite antigenic mismatch between vaccine and circulating strains for influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09, 2021–22 VE estimates against circulating influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 were the highest within the I-MOVE network since the 2009 influenza pandemic. VE against A(H3N2) was lower than A(H1N1)pdm09, but at least one in five individuals vaccinated against influenza were protected against presentation to primary care with laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Background Claims of influenza vaccination increasing COVID-19 risk are circulating. Within the I-MOVE-COVID-19 primary care multicentre study, we measured the association between 2019–20 influenza vaccination and COVID-19. Methods We conducted a multicentre test-negative case-control study at primary care level, in study sites in five European countries, from March–August 2020. Patients presenting with acute respiratory infection were swabbed, with demographic, 2019–20 influenza vaccination and clinical information documented. Using logistic regression we measured the adjusted odds ratio (aOR), adjusting for study site and age, sex, calendar time, presence of chronic conditions. The main analysis included patients swabbed ≤7 days after onset from the three countries with <15% of missing influenza vaccination. In secondary analyses, we included five countries, using multiple imputation with chained equations to account for missing data. Results We included 257 COVID-19 cases and 1631 controls in the main analysis (three countries). The overall aOR between influenza vaccination and COVID-19 was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.66–1.32). The aOR was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.58–1.46) and 0.92 (95%CI: 0.51–1.67) among those aged 20–59 and ≥60 years, respectively. In secondary analyses, we included 6457 cases and 69272 controls. The imputed aOR was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79–0.95) among all ages and any delay between swab and symptom onset. Conclusions There was no evidence that COVID-19 cases were more likely to be vaccinated against influenza than controls. Influenza vaccination should be encouraged among target groups for vaccination. I-MOVE-COVID-19 will continue documenting influenza vaccination status in 2020-21, in order to learn about effects of recent influenza vaccination.