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Germany's next shutdown -- possible scenarios and outcomes
  • Maria Vittoria Barbarossa,
  • Jan Fuhrmann
Maria Vittoria Barbarossa
Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies
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Jan Fuhrmann
Forschungszentrum Jülich Jülich Supercomputing Centre
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Abstract

With the rapid increase of reported COVID-19 cases, German policymakers announced a 4-week “shutdown light” starting on Nov 2, 2020. Applying mathematical models, possible scenarios for the evolution of the outbreak in Germany are simulated. The results indicate that independent of the effectiveness of the current restrictive measures they might not be sufficient to mitigate the outbreak. Repeated shutdown periods or permanently applied measures over the winter could be successful alternatives.

Peer review status:ACCEPTED

12 Nov 2020Submitted to Influenza and other respiratory viruses
13 Nov 2020Submission Checks Completed
13 Nov 2020Assigned to Editor
16 Nov 2020Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
16 Nov 2020Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
16 Nov 20201st Revision Received
17 Nov 2020Submission Checks Completed
17 Nov 2020Assigned to Editor
17 Nov 2020Editorial Decision: Accept