2.4.10 | 95% credibility interval accuracy
We evaluated a posteriori if, in the vicinity of the two observed datasets respectively, the lengths of the estimated 95% credibility intervals (CI) for each parameter was accurately estimated or not (e.g. Jay et al., 2019). To do so, we calculated how many times the true parameter\(\left(\theta_{i}\right)\) was found inside the estimated 95% CI [2.5%quantile\(\left(\hat{\theta_{i}}\right)\) ; 97.5%quantile\(\left(\hat{\theta_{i}}\right)\)], among the 1,000 out-of-bag NN-ABC posterior parameter estimations (Supplementary Table S4 ). For each parameter, if less than 95% of the true parameter values are found inside the 95% CI estimated for the observed data, we consider the length of this credibility interval as underestimated indicative of a non-conservative behavior of the parameter estimation. Alternatively, if more than 95% of the true parameter-values are found inside the estimated 95% CI, we consider its length as overestimated, indicative of an excessively conservative behavior of parameter estimation. For comparison, we conducted the above analysis using instead parameters estimated under the loosing scenario Afr2P-Eur2P (Supplementary Table S5 ).