Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is an emerging tick-borne human disease in Spain. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and exposure risk determinants of CCHF virus (CCHFV) in animal models is essential to predict the time and areas of highest transmission risk. With this goal, we designed a longitudinal survey in two wild ungulate species, the red deer ( Cervus elaphus) and the Eurasian wild boar ( Sus scrofa), in Doñana National Park, a protected Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot with high ungulate and CCHFV vector abundance, and which is also one of the main stopover sites for migratory birds between Africa and western Europe. Both ungulates are hosts to the main CCHFV vector in Spain, Hyalomma lusitanicum. We sampled wild ungulates annually from 2005 to 2020 and analysed the frequency of exposure to CCHFV by a double-antigen ELISA. The annual exposure risk was modelled as a function of environmental traits in an approach to understand exposure risk determinants that allow us to predict the most likely places and years for CCHFV transmission. The main findings show that H. lusitanicum abundance is a major driver of the fine-scale spatial CCHFV transmission risk, while inter-annual variations in the risk are conditioned by virus/vector hosts, by host community structure and by weather variations. The most relevant conclusion of the study is that the emergence of CCHF in Spain might have been associated with recent wild ungulate population changes promoting higher vector abundance. Decreasing wild ungulate population densities could reduce vector abundance and thus virus prevalence and the risk of CCHFV transmission to humans.

Animal tuberculosis (TB) is a widespread infectious disease caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacteria belonging to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC) that can persist in reservoir wildlife hosts. Wild boar (sus scrofa) are a key reservoir for MTC and an increasing trend in wild boar density is expected to lead to an increase in TB prevalence with spill-over to livestock. MTC infection is presently controlled through a variety of strategies, including culling. African swine fever (ASF) is a virulent, viral infection which affects wild boar and is spreading across Eurasia and Oceania. ASF infection leads to near 100% mortality at the individual level, can cause a dramatic decrease in population density and may therefore lead to TB control. In this study we develop a mathematical model to examine the impact of ASF introduction into a wild boar population that supports endemic TB. Our model results indicate that an ASF infection will reduce wild boar population density and lead to a decrease in the prevalence of TB. If ASF persists in the local host population the model predicts the long-term decline of TB prevalence in wild boar. If ASF is eradicated, or fades-out in the local host population, the model predicts a slower recovery of TB prevalence in comparison to wild boar density after an ASF epidemic. This may open a window of opportunity to apply TB management to maintain low TB prevalence.