CONCLUSIONS
The objective of the research was to analyse the groundwater regime of
the study area in the perspective of groundwater abstraction being made
by different stakeholders besides the application of MAR. The requisite
data required for the model development was obtained from concerned
government departments. Visual MODFLOW groundwater model was developed
based on metrological, geological, geotechnical, hydrological, and
abstraction data of the study area. The model was calibrated using
sensitivity analysis through the iterative process. The scenario
modelling was carried out for groundwater analysis of the study area for
different scenarios viz current abstraction scenario, projected
abstraction scenario, and reduced abstraction scenarios. Besides
scenario modelling, different methods of MAR were considered to suggest
a viable and feasible method for sustainable groundwater management.
Based on the simulated results and discussion, it has been established
that an average 05 m drawdown occurred for the last decade and the
groundwater flow path depicts that the cement factories installed at
upstream of the sacred pond, influence the groundwater flow path,
recharging the holy pond. Therefore, the over-abstraction from 2011 to
2020 around the close vicinity of the Katas Raj Temples is the main
cause of drying out of the sacred pond.
The mass budget depicts that the current abstraction rate is 40% more
than the natural recharge of the aquifer resulting in the rapid drawdown
of the groundwater. Therefore, the current abstraction is unsustainable,
which if left uncontrolled, would further lead to an average 05 meters
of groundwater depletion by the year 2030 causing severe environmental
hazards to the study area.
The projected abstraction in the case of industrial development and
agriculture growth predicted the worst scenario of an average 7.4 m of
groundwater depletion by the year 2030. Therefore, alternative sources
of water need to be explored to meet future water demand. However, a
40% reduction in the current abstraction rate can bring the groundwater
use to a safe abstraction resulting in sustainable water management in
the future.
The results of MAR depict that the open surface ponding is a more
feasible and economical method that would contribute to the aquifer
recharge significantly as it overcomes the 60% groundwater budget
deficit.
Recommendations
The sustainable water management of the study area can be achieved by
adopting the following recommendations:
- The open surface ponds should be constructed on appropriate places to
accommodate the surface runoff for infiltration to recharge the
aquifer which would recover 60% of the groundwater budget deficit.
- The air cooling system should be installed in existing cement plants
to reduce the reliance on groundwater up to 50% of its current
abstraction which would balance 22% of the water budget deficit.
- The remaining 18% water budget deficit can be catered by switching
current flood irrigation systems to sprinkling or drip irrigation
techniques in some feasible areas to reduce the crop water
requirement.
- The cement industry should abstract groundwater from the low
abstraction zone downstream of the sacred water pond within latitude
32°42’26.47”N and longitude 72°58’5.96”E to avoid localized drawdown
which would helpful in rehabilitation of the sacred pond on a
long-term basis. The groundwater abstraction within a 4 km radius
around the sacred pond should also be restricted.
- River Jhelum should be utilized to meet the future demand for water
for the proposed cement industry and agriculture needs to reduce the
reliance on groundwater for which a detailed study is recommended
focusing on cost-benefit analysis of the proposal.
- Since the current study was limited to the Choa Saiden Shah area
focused on drying out of the sacred pond, therefore, a future study is
recommended for qualitative & quantitative groundwater analysis of
the whole Salt Range to delineate the negative and positive areas for
future industrial development.