Figure 3.
Figure 1. Life cycle diagram for tree populations. The baseline
and defaunation life cycles are identical except for the italicized
terms. Under defaunation, the probability of dispersal (d )
changes for trees dispersed by large vertebrates but remains the same
for other tree species. Seed survival (ss,u andss,d ) after defaunation is affected by changes in
seed predation mortality. Seedling survival (ss,uand ss,d ) after defaunation is affected by
changes in trampling-induced mortality. Seedling survival in both
baseline and defaunation scenarios is density dependent (see equation 1)
based on the number of conspecific adults.
Figure 2. Relative importances of all variables (the percent of
the variance in the data explained by each) included in our additive
model in predicting the response of tree populations to defaunation.
Dark gray bars show defaunation parameters, light gray bars show species
traits.
Figure 3. Variables related to defaunation responses across all
tree species and defaunation scenarios. ‘Defaunation response’ is the
final number of adults in the defaunation scenario divided by the final
number of adults in the baseline scenario. In panels A and C, black
circles represent the median defaunation response for each trait or
parameter value; vertical black lines show the 95% confidence
intervals. The trendlines show model fit based on all datapoints (not
just median values) and include 99% confidence intervals that are too
small to be seen. In panel B, the solid horizontial line shows the
median, the box encompasses the 25th to
75th percentiles, and the vertical bars indicate the
95% confidence interval. There is clearly an inverse relationship
between seed predation and defaunation response (panel A). Angiosperms
and small-seeded species are more strongly influenced by
defaunation—benefiting when seed predation is reduced and suffering
when seed predation is increased; gymnosperms and large-seed species are
less strongly affected (panels B and C).