Climatic analogs between the contemporary era and the late 21st century in China
There seems to be a gap between the public and complex climate prediction models, which reduces the public awareness and participation of climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to describe the trend of future climate change with more concise conclusions. Climatic analog is an effective method to measure the similarity between two climate scenarios. By mapping a climate scenario to another familiar climate scenario and measuring their similarity, complex climate prediction models are simplified and easy to understand. In this study, we used climatic analog to study climatic novelty in China, climatic analogs of 378 cities in China, and the livable regions of China in the future. The results show that: (1) the climatic novelty of the North China Plain, Xinjiang, Tibet, and parts of southern China is relatively high, and these areas may experience more drastic climate changes; (2) most cities have climatic analogs in the south hundreds of kilometers away, indicating that the climate of these cities may change significantly; (3) China’s livable areas will change significantly in the future, which is closely related to whether effective emission reduction measures are taken. The results of the study have repeatedly proved the need for effective emission reduction measures, which will significantly delay climate change.
Keywords --- climatic analogs, climatic novelty, climate change, emission reduction