Main findings
This is to our knowledge the first determination of the best performing customised fetal weight limits for the prediction of stillbirth. Previously we calculated ROC curves for customised fetal weight centiles in a smaller Dutch cohort 22 with adverse outcomes defined as operative delivery or admission to neonatal intensive care. Here, we were able to use a large database from a national programme to analyse stillbirth as a rarer, harder outcome measure in different risk groups.
While the actual AUCs were relatively modest, ranging from 61.2% to 62.3%, this is not surprising as restricted growth leading to SGA is not the only factor associated with, or causal for, stillbirth23. It is consistent with AUC values reported recently from datasets with similar amounts of information available at booking.24