Added value of this study
- The peak of COVID-19 infection has passed.
- The infection rate R has fallen from before shutdown
23rd March 2020 value of 2.8 to now a suppression
value of 0.8.
- Our modelling indicates that only one factor, the total reported cases
/,000 population is significantly associated with the daily infection
rate.
- We predict that there are as many as 237 community cases for each
reported case. With the current 73,000 reported cases this suggests
that 29% of the UK population has already been infected.