Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Lauren Ponisio and Tye Kindinger for statistical advice, and to Kathryn Schoenrock and Ragan Callaway for feedback that greatly improved this manuscript. AB was supported by a James S. McDonnell Foundation Postdoctoral Fellowship in Studying Complex Systems. AM contributed to the development of this publication under STAR Fellowship Assistance Agreement no. FP917814 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).  It has not been formally reviewed by EPA.  The views expressed in this publication are solely those of Arley F. Muth, and EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in this publication. The authors declare no conflicts of interest.