Conclusion

Our study modeled the effects of fatalities of Endangered Black Harriers at South African wind farms on the global population of this rare endemic. Relatively few fatalities of this species have been recorded at wind facilities, yet our modelling showed some alarming trends that highlight why it is critical to go beyond simply recording the number of fatalities at wind farms. At fatality rates of just three to five adult birds per year the Black Harrier population is predicted to crash in under 100 years. This unexpected result highlights the need to avoid wind farm development within the breeding range of the Black Harrier that could impact this fragile population. It additionally highlights the need to model other small susceptible populations living on the edge  under threat from multiple anthropogenic pressures.
Acknowledgements
Funding was received from NRF incentive grant to RES. Much of the data collection was supported by Birdlife South Africa bird clubs.
Data collection and analysis was greatly facilitated by Drs  Sophie Garcia-Heras, Bea Arroyo and Francois Mougeot. We additionally thank Drs Odette Curtis and Andrew Jenkins for early collaboration in data collection. We thank Globeleq (Pieter Oosthuisen) for access and funds to undertake studies at the Jeffreys Bay wind facility.  Drs Phil Whitfield, Ralph Buij and Tonio Schaub kindly answered our questions and directed us to data on European harriers and wind farm fatalities.
We also thank Dr. Res Altwegg for his invaluable inputs on population dynamics modelling
NBSAP 2015-2025. [National Biodiversity Study and Action Plan]   www.environment.gov.za/sites/default/files/docs/publications/SAsnationalbiodiversity_strategyandactionplan2015_2025.pdf