Once we have a model for the population number of Black Harriers in any given year, our objective is to describe the population trend of the species. Finally, we link the current population trend with the life history parameters and with these we simulate population trajectories under different scenarios and investigate which life history parameters have greater impact on the population dynamics.
Firstly, we define a temporal (dynamic) extension, in which the mean number of individuals across site changes every year at a rate \(\zeta_t\) \citep[see][]{Rossman_2016}. We then model the number of detections of the species in year \(t\) as: