BACKGROUND: Climate change represents a critical global challenge, hindered by skepticism towards data manipulation and politicization. Trust in climate data and its policies is essential for effective climate action. OBJECTIVE: This perspective paper explores the synergistic potential of blockchain technology and Large Language Models (LLMs) in addressing climate change. It aims to demonstrate how their integration can enhance the transparency, reliability, and accessibility of climate science, thus rebuilding public trust and fostering more effective climate action. METHODS: The paper analyzes the roles of blockchain technology in enhancing transparency, traceability, and efficiency in carbon credit trading, renewable energy certificates, and sustainable supply chain management. It also examines the capabilities of LLMs in processing complex datasets to distill actionable intelligence. The synergistic effects of integrating both technologies for improved climate action are discussed alongside the challenges faced, such as scalability, energy consumption, and the necessity for high-quality data. RESULTS: Blockchain technology contributes to climate change mitigation by ensuring transparent and immutable recording of transactions and environmental impacts, fostering stakeholder trust and democratizing participation in climate initiatives. LLMs complement blockchain by providing deep insights and actionable intelligence from large datasets, facilitating evidence-based policymaking. The integration of both technologies promises enhanced data management, improved climate models, and more effective climate action initiatives. CHALLENGES: The paper identifies blockchain technologies' scalability, energy consumption, and the need for high-quality data for LLMs as significant challenges. It suggests advancements towards more energy-efficient consensus mechanisms and the development of sophisticated data preprocessing tools as potential solutions. CONCLUSION: The integration of blockchain technology and LLMs offers a transformative approach to climate change mitigation, enhancing the accuracy, transparency, and security of climate data and governance. This synergy addresses current limitations and futureproofs climate strategies, marking a cornerstone for the next generation of environmental stewardship.
BACKGROUND: In biostatistics, evaluating fragility is crucial for understanding their vulnerability to miscategorization. One proposed measure of statistical fragility is the unit fragility index (UFI), which measures the susceptibility of the p-value to flip significance with minor changes in outcomes. Although the UFI provides valuable information, it relies on p-values, which are arbitrary measures of statistical significance. Alternative measures, such as the fragility quotient (FQ) and the percent fragility index, have been proposed to decrease the UFI's reliance on sample size. However, these approaches still rely on p-values and thus depend on an arbitrary cutoff of p < 0.05. Instead of quantifying fragility by relying on p-values, this study evaluated the effect of small changes on relative risk. METHODS: Random 2x2 contingency tables associated with an initial p-value of 0.001 to 0.05 were evaluated. Each table's UFI and relative risk index (RRI) were calculated. A derivative of the RRI, the percent RRI, was also calculated along with the FQ. The UFI, FQ, RRI, pRRI, initial p-value, and sample size were compared. RESULTS: A total of 15000 cases were tested. The correlation between the UFI and the p-value was the strongest (r = -0.807), and the correlation between the pRRI was the weakest (r = -0.395). The RRI had the strongest correlation with the sample size (r = 0.826), and the UFI had the weakest correlation (r = 0.3904). The coefficient of variation for the average RRI was the smallest at 28.3%, and for the FQ, it was the greatest at 57.0%. The correlation between the UFI, FQ, and p-value is significantly greater than the correlation between the RRI, pRRI, and p-value (for all comparisons, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The RRI and pRRI are significantly less correlated with the p-value than the UFI and FQ, indicating relative independence of the RRI and pRRI from p-values.
The classical definition of statistical significance is p <= 0.05, meaning a 1/20 chance the test statistic found is due to normal variation of the null hypothesis. This definition of statistical significance does not represent the likelihood that the alternative hypothesis is true. Hypothesis testing can be evaluated using a 2x2 table (shown below). Box "a" = true positives: p <= 0.05 and the alternative hypothesis is true. This is the study's power. A rule of thumb is that study power should be at least 80% (80% of the time the statistical test is positive when the alternative hypothesis is true). Therefore a = 0.80. Box "b" = false-positives: p <= 0.05 but the alternative hypothesis is false. By definition, when p = 0.05 the test statistic has a 5% probability of occurring by chance when the null hypothesis is true. Therefore, b = 0.05. Box "c" = false-negatives: p >= 0.05 but the alternative hypothesis is true. This occurs 20% of the time when the study's power is 80%. Therefore, c = 0.20. Box "d" = true-negatives: p >= 0.05 and the null hypothesis is true. This occurs 95% of the time when p <= 0.05. Therefore, d = 0.95. From this table we derive: Sensitivity = power = a/(a+c) = 80%. Specificity = (1-p) = d/(b+d) = 95%. Positive predictive value = power/(power + p-value) = a/(a+b) = 94%. Negative predictive value = d/(c+d) = 83%. The classical definition of statistical significance is (1-specificity) and does not take power into consideration. The proposed new definition of statistical significance is when the positive predictive value of a test statistic is 95% or greater. To arrive at this, the cut-off p-value representing statistical significance needs to be corrected for study power so that 0.05 > (p-value)/(p-value + power). To achieve a 95% predictive confidence,it can be derived that statistical significance is a p-value <= power / 19.