Tipping points have gained substantial traction in climate change discourses, both as representing the possibility of catastrophic and irreversible physical and societal impacts and as a way to set in motion positive, rapid and self-sustaining responses, such as the adoption of new technologies, practices, and behaviors. As such, tipping points appear ubiquitous in natural and social systems. Here, we critique 'tipping point' framings, specifically their insufficiency for describing the diverse dynamics of complex systems; their reductionist view of individuals, their agency and their aspirations; and their tendency to convey urgency without fostering a meaningful basis for climate action. We argue for clarifying the scientific discussion of the phenomena lumped under the 'tipping point' umbrella by using more specific language to capture relevant aspects (e.g., irreversibility, abruptness, self-amplification, potential surprise) and for the critical evaluation of whether, how and why the different framings can support accurate scientific understanding and effective climate risk management. Multiple social scientific frameworks suggest that deep uncertainty and perceived abstractness associated with many proposed Earth system 'tipping points' make them both unlikely to provoke effective action and not helpful for setting governance goals that must be sensitive to multiple constraints. The mental model of a 'tipping point' does not align with the multifaceted nature of social change; a broader focus on the dynamics of social transformation is more useful. Temperature-based benchmarks originating in a broad portfolio of concerns already provide a suitable guide for global mitigation policy targets and should not be confused with physical thresholds of the climate system.

Estimates of changes in the frequency or height of contemporary extreme sea levels (ESLs) under various climate change scenarios are often used by climate and sea level scientists to help communicate the physical basis for societal concern regarding sea-level rise. Changes in ESLs (i.e., the hazard) are often represented using various metrics and indicators that, when anchored to salient impacts on human systems and the natural environment, provide useful information to policy makers, stakeholders, and the general public. While changes in hazards are often anchored to impacts at local scales, aggregate global summary metrics generally lack the context of local exposure and vulnerability that facilitates translating hazards into impacts. Contextualizing changes in hazards is also needed when communicating the timing of when projected ESL frequencies cross critical thresholds, such as the year in which ESLs higher than the design height benchmark of protective infrastructure (e.g., the 100-yr water level) are expected to occur within the lifetime of that infrastructure. We present specific examples demonstrating the need for such contextualization using a simple flood exposure model, local sea-level rise projections, and population exposure estimates for 414 global cities. We suggest regional and global climate assessment reports integrate global, regional, and local perspectives on coastal risk to address hazard, vulnerability and exposure simultaneously.

Previous studies have interpreted Last Interglacial (LIG; ~129-116 ka) sea-level estimates in multiple different ways to calibrate projections of future Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) mass loss and associated sea-level rise. This study systematically explores the extent to which LIG constraints could inform future Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise. We develop a Gaussian process emulator of an ice-sheet model to produce continuous probabilistic projections of Antarctic sea-level contributions over the LIG and a future high-emissions scenario. We use a Bayesian approach conditioning emulator projections on a set of LIG constraints to find associated likelihoods of model parameterizations. LIG estimates inform both the probability of past and future ice-sheet instabilities and projections of future sea-level rise through 2150. Although best-available LIG estimates do not meaningfully constrain Antarctic mass loss projections or physical processes until 2060, they become increasingly informative over the next 130 years. Uncertainties of up to 50 cm remain in future projections even if LIG Antarctic mass loss is precisely known (+/-5 cm), indicating there is a limit to how informative the LIG could be for ice-sheet model future projections. The efficacy of LIG constraints on Antarctic mass loss also depends on assumptions about the Greenland ice sheet and LIG sea-level chronology. However, improved field measurements and understanding of LIG sea levels still have potential to improve future sea-level projections, highlighting the importance of continued observational efforts.

Astronomical variations in tidal magnitude can strongly modulate the severity of coastal flooding on daily, monthly, and interannual timescales. Here, we present a new quasi-nonstationary skew surge joint probability method (qn-SSJPM) that estimates interannual fluctuations in flood hazard caused by the 18.6 and quasi 4.4-year modulations of tides. We demonstrate that qn-SSJPM-derived storm tide frequency estimates are more precise and stable compared with the standard practice of fitting an extreme value distribution to measured storm tides, which is often biased by the largest few events within the observational period. Applying the qn-SSJPM in the Gulf of Maine, we find significant tidal forcing of winter storm season flood hazard by the 18.6-year nodal cycle, whereas 4.4-year modulations and a secular trend in tides are small compared to interannual variation and long-term trends in sea-level. The nodal cycle forces decadal oscillations in the 1% annual chance storm tide at an average rate of ±13.5 mm/y in Eastport, ME; ±4.0 mm/y in Portland, ME; and ±5.9 mm/y in Boston, MA. Currently (in 2020), nodal forcing is counteracting the sea-level rise-induced increase in flood hazard; however, in 2025, the nodal cycle will reach a minimum and then begin to accelerate flood hazard increase as it moves toward its maximum phase over the subsequent decade. Along the world’s meso-to-macrotidal coastlines, it is therefore critical to consider both sea-level rise and tidal non-stationarity in planning for the transition to chronic flooding that will be driven by sea-level rise in many regions over the next century.

Coastal climate adaptation public works, such as storm surge barriers and levees, are central elements of many strategies to limit damages from coastal storms and sea-level rise. Academic analysis of such public works projects is dominated by technocratic and engineering-driven frameworks. However, social conflict and politics have been crucial in the conception, design, and implementation of other public infrastructure and natural hazard preparedness projects. In this review, we highlight the role of interest mobilization, political motivations, siting opposition, and flexible/adaptive decision-making in both creating and overcoming political obstacles. Better understanding the social and political factors that enable or hinder the implementation of adaptation works could encourage strategies and policies that are less likely to result in deadlocks, delays, or failure, thus saving valuable time and planning resources.

This paper reports a new and significantly enhanced analysis of US flood hazard at 30m spatial resolution. Specific improvements include updated hydrography data, new methods to determine channel depth, more rigorous flood frequency analysis, output downscaling to property tract level and inclusion of the impact of local interventions in the flooding system. For the first time we consider pluvial, fluvial and coastal flood hazards within the same framework and provide projections for both current (rather than historic average) conditions and for future time periods centred on 2035 and 2050 under the RCP4.5 emissions pathway. Validation against high quality local models and the entire catalogue of FEMA 1% annual probability flood maps yielded Critical Success Index values in the range 0.69-0.82. Significant improvements over a previous pluvial/fluvial model version are shown for high frequency events and coastal zones, along with minor improvements in areas where model performance was already good. The result is the first comprehensive and consistent national scale analysis of flood hazard for the conterminous US for both current and future conditions. Even though we consider a stabilization emissions scenario and a near future time horizon we project clear patterns of changing flood hazard (-3.8 to +16% changes in 100yr inundated area at 1° scale), that are significant when considered as a proportion of the land area where human use is possible or in terms of the currently protected land area where the standard of flood defence protection may become compromised by this time.

Ocean dynamic sea level (DSL) change is a key driver of relative sea level (RSL) change. Projections of DSL change are generally obtained from simulations using atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs). Here, we develop a two-layer climate emulator to interpolate between emission scenarios simulated with GCMs and extend projections beyond the time horizon of available simulations. This emulator captures the evolution of DSL changes in corresponding GCMs, especially over middle and low latitudes. Compared with an emulator using univariate pattern scaling, the two-layer emulator more accurately reflects GCM behavior and captures non-linearities and non-stationarity in the relationship between DSL and global-mean warming. Using the emulator, we develop a probabilistic ensemble of DSL projections through 2300 for four scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3-7.0. The magnitude and uncertainty of projected DSL changes decrease from the high- to the low- emission scenarios, indicating a reduced DSL rise hazard in low- and moderate- emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) compared to the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and RCP8.5).

The artificial impoundment of water behind dams causes global mean sea level (GMSL) to fall as reservoirs fill, but also generates a local rise in sea level due to the increased mass in the reservoir and the crustal deformation this mass induces. To estimate spatiotemporal fluctuations in sea level due to water impoundment, we use a historical data set that includes 6,329 reservoirs completed between 1900 and 2011, as well as projections of 3,565 reservoirs that are expected to be completed by 2040. The GMSL change associated with the historical data (–0.2 mm yr-1 from 1900 – 2011) is consistent with previous studies, but the temporal and spatial resolution allows for local studies that were not previously possible, revealing that some locations experience a sea level rise of as much as 40 mm over less than a decade. Future construction of reservoirs through ~2040 is projected to cause a GMSL fall whose rate is comparable to that of the last century (–0.3 mm yr-1), but with a geographic distribution that will be distinct from the last century, including a rise in sea level in more coastal areas. The analysis of expected construction shows that significant impoundment near coastal communities in the coming decades could enhance the flooding risk already heightened by global sea level rise.

Projections of future sea-level change are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and by ambiguity. Both types of uncertainty are relevant to users of sea-level projections, particularly those making long-term investment and planning decisions with multigenerational consequences. Communicating information about both types is thus a central challenge faced by scientists who generate sea-level projections to support decision-making. Diverse approaches to communicating uncertainty in future sea-level projections have been taken over the last several decades, but the literature evaluating these approaches is limited and not systematic. Here, we review how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has approached uncertainty in sealevel projections in past assessment cycles and how this information has been interpreted by national and subnational assessments, as well as alternative approaches used by recent US subnational assessments. The evidence reviewed here generally supports the explicit approach to communicating both types of uncertainty adopted by the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Future coastal flood hazard at many locations will be impacted by both tropical cyclone (TC) change and relative sea-level rise (SLR). Despite sea level and TC activity being influenced by common thermodynamic and dynamic climate variables, their future changes are generally considered independently. Here, we investigate correlations between SLR and TC change derived from simulations of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. We first explore correlations between SLR and TC activity by inference from two large‑scale factors known to modulate TC activity: potential intensity (PI) and vertical wind shear. Under the high emissions SSP5-8.5, SLR is strongly correlated with PI change (positively) and vertical wind shear change (negatively) over much of the western North Atlantic and North West Pacific. To explore the impact of the joint changes on flood hazard, we then conduct climatologyhydrodynamic modeling with New York City (NYC) as an example. Coastal flood hazard at NYC correlates strongly with global mean surface air temperature (GSAT), due to joint increases in both sea level and TC storm surges, the later driven by stronger and more slowly moving TCs. If positive correlations between SLR and TC changes are ignored in estimating flood hazard, the average projected change to the historical 100 year storm tide event is under-estimated by 0.09 m (7%) and the range across CMIP6 models is underestimated by 0.17 m (11 %). Our results suggest that flood hazard assessments that neglect the joint influence of these factors and that do not reflect the full distribution of GSAT changes will not accurately represent future flood hazard.

The ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland present the greatest uncertainty in, and largest potential contribution to, future sea level rise. The uncertainty arises from a paucity of suitable observations covering the full range of ice sheet behaviors, incomplete understanding of process influences, and limitations in defining key boundary conditions for the numerical models. To investigate the impact of these uncertainties on ice sheet projections we undertook a structured expert judgement study. Here, we interrogate the findings of that study to identify the dominant drivers of uncertainty in projections and their relative importance as a function of ice sheet and time. We find that for the 21st century, Greenland surface melting, in particular the role of surface albedo effects, and West Antarctic ice dynamics, specifically the role of ice shelf buttressing, dominate the uncertainty. The importance of these effects holds under both a high-end 5°C global warming scenario and another that limits global warming to 2°C. During the 22nd century the dominant drivers of uncertainty shift. Under the 5°C scenario, East Antarctic ice dynamics dominate the uncertainty in projections, driven by the possible role of ice flow instabilities. These dynamic effects only become dominant, however, for a temperature scenario above the Paris Agreement 2°C target and beyond 2100. Our findings identify key processes and factors that need to be addressed in future modeling studies in order to reduce uncertainties in ice sheet projections.

Anticipating and managing the impacts of sea-level rise for nations astride active tectonic margins requires rates of sea surface elevation change in relation to coastal land elevation to be understood. Vertical land motion (VLM) can either exacerbate or reduce sea-level changes with impacts varying significantly along a coastline. Determining rate, pattern, and variability of VLM near coasts leads to a direct improvement of location-specific relative sea level (RSL) estimates. Here, we utilise vertical velocity field from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data, calibrated with campaign and continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), to determine the VLM for the entire coastline of New Zealand. Guided by existing knowledge of the seismic cycle, the VLM data infer long-term, interseismic rates of land surface deformation. We build probabilistic RSL projections using the Framework for Assessing Changes to Sea-level (FACTS) from IPCC Assessment Report 6 and ingest local VLM data to produce RSL projections at 7435 sites, thereby enhancing spatial coverage that was previously limited to tide gauges. We present ensembles of probability distributions of RSL for medium confidence climatic processes for each scenario to 2150 and low confidence processes to 2300. For regions where land subsidence is occurring at rates >2mm yr-1 VLM makes a significant contribution to RSL projections for all scenarios out 2150. Beyond 2150, for higher emissions scenarios, the land ice contribution to global sea level dominates. We discuss the planning implications of RSL projections, where timing of threshold exceedance for coastal inundation can be brought forward by decades.