Betting markets could be used to resolve the controversy about Austrian business cycle theory. We could organize bets of 1$ about whether or not there will be a depression in the next 3 years conditional on the Fed's policy rate is being reduced. I there would be claims to pay 1$ whenever there is no depression 3 years after a sigificant reduction in the policy rate. There will also be claims to pay 1$ when there is a depression in the 3 years after a singificant reduction in the Fed's policy rate. For instance, if the first security has a price of 0.2 $ while the second security has a price of 0.4$, then there would be a conditional probability of 2/3 that Austrian Business cycle theory gets it right. I would not bet against the market unless the betting market gave me less than a 1 in 5 chance of being correct.