The choice of technologies

Background

TBD

Technology forecasting, substitution patterns, and technological failure

Technological substitution often plays an important role in the fortunes of modern enterprises. Correctly predicting which technologies are likely to be most influential can ensure that a firm is best positioned to steal a large advance over their competitors when the new technology comes to fruition. Conversely, failure to anticipate the arrival of big technological shifts can leave firms severely diminished. This is illustrated by the dramatic impact on Kodak's business following the introduction of digital photography, that rendered many of the firm's existing film product's obsolete following an early lead in the digital field that was not fully capitalised upon \cite{Lucas_2009}. Equally, investing heavily in a nascent technology too soon can have grave consequences, as Bertlesmann found from investing in Napster \cite{Hall_2006}. As such forecasting techniques are often used to determine strategies in large organisations by providing an initial guide to future opportunities, risks, challenges, & areas of uncertainty.
In this field, considerable work has already been undertaken on the modelling of technology diffusion as part of these substitution events. This has included, amongst many other areas of study, the influence of successive technology generations, and the impact of time delays on the perception of new technologies, as illustrated in Fig. \ref{359340} and Fig. \ref{740770} respectively.