Industrial environment (overview of Systems Engineering practices in aerospace design)

Forecasting techniques often used to determine strategies in large organisations by providing guide to future opportunities, risks, challenges, & areas of uncertainty

Introduction to technology forecasting

From 'Gauging credibility of simulated disruptions':
A common challenge faced by many disruptive technologies, innovations, and business models when first introduced into commercial markets is the assessment of the projected viability of the product or service being offered in uncertain future conditions. To this extent forecasts are often generated of projected market outcomes, increasingly based on computer-generated simulations of the world, in order to provide some guidance on the implications of predicted changes.
Forecasts are used in many different aspects of life: from predictions of changing weather patterns, to projections of a nation’s financial outlook, or to provide update warnings of traffic congestion to in-car satellite navigation systems as holiday-makers converge on popular destinations. Equally, computer-generated forecasts are increasingly used to represent the possible outcomes of disruptive changes and events that cannot be easily or safely reproduced through conventional experimentation procedures (such as simulating responses to natural disasters, and large-scale social disruptions).
In a commercial sense, forecasting techniques such as the Bass diffusion model [1, 2] are often applied (amongst numerous other techniques [3, 4]) to gauge the impact of new products and technologies within markets, or to estimate the substitution patterns observed as successive generations of technology replace existing dominant designs (see Fig. 1) [5].
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Thesis chapter structure

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