Purpose

6 month report:
The purpose of this project is to develop a framework methodology that will enable the evolving values and beliefs of global ATS stakeholders to be determined from their dynamic environmental relationships (including influences due to regional level socio-political characteristics outside of the direct ATS), as well as capturing stakeholders ability to take intuitive action not necessarily prescribed by previous learning (often represented by disruptive innovations within the ATS).
From the perspective of commercial aircraft manufacturers, the value in this proposal is in terms of being able to identify robust strategies for development of future vehicle configurations, technologies, and operational services – in essence ensuring future-proofing of business concepts against the broad uncertainty presented by current forecasts of future scenarios. As such, this project should enable the complexity of the ATS SoS to be represented in a manner such that valid strategic decisions can be made whilst taking into account the complexity of these interconnected, independent systems.
3rd year report:
The overall purpose of this project is unchanged from the description provided in the previous progress reports (development of a framework methodology for capturing and interpreting evolving dynamics of global ATS stakeholders based on their changing socio-technical environment).
The purpose of the individual research contribution within the scope of the larger project has been adapted slightly so as to focus on developing micro-level models (theoretical and applied) of how individual stakeholders in different community groups react to disruptive innovations, in order to examine how the presumption of future constraints is passed between stakeholders, and how this influences the adoption of innovations at the aggregate level.

Objectives

3rd year report:
The objectives of the individual research project have been adapted from those outlined in the previous progress reports; specific objectives for the individual research project are provided here only, taking into account agreed research partner contributions:
a)           Development of disruptive case studies to identify and understand impact of scientific & technological effects perceived by different community groups on global technology adoption trends: This will be a primary objective of the individual Eng-D research project
b)           Development of a static technology adoption model (i.e. stakeholders have fixed behavioural laws applied) for conceptual level strategic analysis: Individual research project focus here will be on translating and implementing stakeholder behavioural patterns into micro-level behavioural models that produce observed aggregate-level technology diffusion behaviours
c)           Development of a dynamic technology adoption model (i.e. including stakeholder learning behaviours and intuition) for conceptual level strategic analysis: Individual research project focus here will be on the modelling of intuitive and presumptive behaviours in stakeholders based on future scientific and technological constraints, to identify any influences on aggregate-level substitution of disruptive technologies
d)           Implementation of disruptive case study representation(s) in SoS, and examination of predicted evolution of technology adoption trends, stakeholders values, beliefs, and strategies: This will be a primary objective of the individual Eng-D research project
A breakdown of the basic project structure is provided in Appendix 1 of the first year progress report that illustrates the tasks allocated to each partner in the wider research consortium, and the key themes behind each area of investigation.

Introduction to technology forecasting

Forecasting techniques often used to determine strategies in large organisations by providing guide to future opportunities, risks, challenges, & areas of uncertainty
From 'Gauging credibility of simulated disruptions':
A common challenge faced by many disruptive technologies, innovations, and business models when first introduced into commercial markets is the assessment of the projected viability of the product or service being offered in uncertain future conditions. To this extent forecasts are often generated of projected market outcomes, increasingly based on computer-generated simulations of the world, in order to provide some guidance on the implications of predicted changes.
Forecasts are used in many different aspects of life: from predictions of changing weather patterns, to projections of a nation’s financial outlook, or to provide update warnings of traffic congestion to in-car satellite navigation systems as holiday-makers converge on popular destinations. Equally, computer-generated forecasts are increasingly used to represent the possible outcomes of disruptive changes and events that cannot be easily or safely reproduced through conventional experimentation procedures (such as simulating responses to natural disasters, and large-scale social disruptions).