Table [ ]. Source: Balke and Gordon ; NBER Macrohistory Database
If we compare the reduction of investment in equipment in the fourth
quarter of 1929 from its third-quarter level to the same reduction in
the value of refined copper shipments, it becomes clear that the
reduction in the latter constitutes 15.5% of the total reduction in
investment in equipment. And if we consult one more time Fig. [ ]
showing the dynamics of refined copper shipments and price, we will
notice that the reduction in the value of copper shipments in the fourth
quarter was caused entirely by a rapid drop in shipments. Such a drop is
difficult to explain by something other than a sudden stoppage of a
large number of projects. Moreover, the fact that the reduction in the
refined copper shipments constitutes such a large percentage of the
overall decline in investment in equipment, strongly suggests that
projects that involved the use of refined copper were at the heart of
the initial investment decline that launched the Great Depression.
There is a potential objection that can be made to this version of
events based on the breakdown of copper utilization by sector summarized
in Table [ ] below.