AbstractThe introduction of new technologies into heavily regulated industries such as aerospace is often a very complex, time-consuming and expensive challenge that requires significant levels of research and development in order to ensure a successful technology substitution. This challenge is exacerbated when new technology options represent a fundamental shift away from well-established principles, as the risk and uncertainties involved increase significantly. This is currently the case in the anticipated transition from conventional turbojet aircraft architectures to all new electric configurations, and equally for the adoption of technologies enabling mass manufacturing and customisation processes in aerospace production lines. At the same time, the opportunities associated with these disruptive or sustaining innovations may be sufficient to warrant decision-makers adopting new technological paradigms. In some cases, new technological paradigms arise even while existing technological paradigms are still undergoing further developments, and have not yet reached the peak of their performance. This further complicates the decision for enterprises, as switching to a new technological paradigm that may or may not out-perform the old one presents great commercial risk. In this regard it is beneficial to be able to identify early on whether a new technological paradigm is likely to have scope for development beyond that of the current dominant technology, and commercially, when the tipping point might occur where the new paradigm would become the industry ‘mainstream’ technology option.This paper examines historical cases where emerging technologies have been presumed in-advance to have development opportunities beyond those of pre-existing technologies, subsequently leading to transitions occurring before performance of the existing technology has stagnated. Bibliometric, pattern recognition, statistical and other data-driven analysis techniques are applied to technologies identified as having been adopted as a result of either prior technological stagnation, or as a result of a presumptive leap being made, in order to identify early indicators of the mode of technological substitution. This has led to the development of a functional linear regression model that can be used in supporting technology strategy and innovation management by indicating the likely mode of adoption from key technology development indicators.IntroductionTechnology forecasting, substitution patterns, and technological failureTechnological substitution often plays an important role in the fortunes of modern enterprises. Correctly anticipating the arrival of dominant new technology paradigms can ensure that a firm is best positioned to steal a large advance over their competitors when the new technology comes to fruition. Conversely, failure to anticipate the arrival of big technological shifts can leave firms severely diminished. This is illustrated by the dramatic impact on Kodak's business following the introduction of digital photography, that rendered many of the firm's existing product's obsolete \cite{Lucas_2009}. Equally, investing in a nascent technology too soon can have grave consequences. As such forecasting techniques are often used to determine strategies in large organisations by providing an initial guide to future opportunities, risks, challenges, & areas of uncertainty.In this field, considerable work has already been undertaken on the modelling of technology diffusion as part of these substitution events. This has included, amongst many other areas of study, the influence of successive technology generations, and the impact of time delays on the perception of new technologies, as illustrated in Fig. \ref{359340} and Fig. \ref{740770} respectively.
