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Arctic Tropospheric Ozone Trends
  • +19
  • Kathy S Law,
  • Jens Liengaard Hjorth,
  • Jakob Boyd Pernov,
  • Cynthia Whaley,
  • Henrik Skov,
  • Martine Collaud Coen,
  • Joakim Langner,
  • Steve Robert Arnold,
  • David W Tarasick,
  • Jesper Christensen,
  • Makoto Deushi,
  • Peter Effertz,
  • Greg Faluvegi,
  • Michael Gauss,
  • Ulas Im,
  • Naga Oshima,
  • Irina Petropavlovskikh,
  • David Plummer,
  • Kostas Tsigaridis,
  • Svetlana Tsyro,
  • Sverre Solberg,
  • Steven T Turnock
Kathy S Law
Sorbonne Université (LATMOS)

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jens Liengaard Hjorth
Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Aarhus University
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Jakob Boyd Pernov
EPFL
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Cynthia Whaley
Environment and Climate Change Canada
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Henrik Skov
Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Aarhus University
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Martine Collaud Coen
MeteoSwiss
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Joakim Langner
SMHI, Folkborgsvägen , 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
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Steve Robert Arnold
University of Leeds
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David W Tarasick
Environment and Climate Change Canada / Government of Canada
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Jesper Christensen
Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Aarhus University
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Makoto Deushi
Meteorological Research Institute
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Peter Effertz
CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory
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Greg Faluvegi
Columbia University
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Michael Gauss
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
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Ulas Im
Aarhus University
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Naga Oshima
Meteorological Research Institute
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Irina Petropavlovskikh
Cooperative Institude for Research in Environmental Sciences, CU
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David Plummer
Environment Canada
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Kostas Tsigaridis
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
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Svetlana Tsyro
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
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Sverre Solberg
Norwegian Institute for Air Research
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Steven T Turnock
Met Office Hadley Centre
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Abstract

Trends in tropospheric ozone, an important air pollutant and short-lived climate forcer (SLCF), are estimated using available surface and ozonesonde profile data for 1993-2019. Using a coherent methodology, observed trends are compared to modeled trends (1995-2015) from the Arctic Monitoring Assessment Programme SLCF 2021 assessment. Statistically significant increases in observed surface ozone at Arctic coastal sites, notably during winter, and concurrent decreasing trends in surface carbon monoxide, are generally captured by multi-model median (MMM) trends. Wintertime increases are also estimated in the free troposphere at most Arctic sites, but tend to be overestimated by the MMMs. Springtime surface ozone increases in northern coastal Alaska are not simulated while negative springtime trends in northern Scandinavia are not always reproduced. Possible reasons for observed changes and model behavior are discussed, including decreasing precursor emissions, changing ozone sinks, and variability in large-scale meteorology.
20 Feb 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
20 Feb 2023Published in ESS Open Archive