Atmospheric River Sequences as Indicators of Hydrologic Hazard in
Present and Future Climates
Abstract
When multiple atmospheric rivers (ARs) occur in rapid succession, the
compound effect on the hydrologic system can lead to more flooding and
damage than would be expected from the individual events. This
temporally compounding risk is a source of growing concern for water
managers in California. We present a novel moving average-based
definition of AR “sequences” that identifies the time periods of
elevated hydrologic hazard that occur during and after consecutive AR
events. This marks the first quantitative evaluation of when temporal
compounding is contributing to AR flood risk. We also assess projected
changes in sequence frequency, intensity, and duration in California
under both intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high (SSP5-8.5) emissions
scenarios. Sequence frequency increases over time and is fairly uniform
across the state, with the largest changes occurring by the end of the
century (+0.72 sequences/year in SSP2-4.5, +1.13 sequences/year in
SSP5-8.5). Sequence intensity and duration both see increases in the
central tendencies and extreme values of their respective distributions
relative to the historic baselines. In particular, “super-sequence”
events longer than sixty days are projected to occur 2-3x more
frequently and to emerge in places that have never seen them in the
historical record. In a world where California precipitation is becoming
more erratic and temporally concentrated, our definition of sequences
will help identify when and where hydrologic impacts will be most
extreme, which can in turn support better management of the state’s
highly variable water resources and inform future flood mitigation
strategies.