Abstract
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) flavours in the tropical Pacific are
studied from a regime perspective. Five recurring spatial patterns or
regimes characterising the diversity of ENSO are established using a
clustering approach applied to the HadISST sea surface temperature
anomalies (SSTA). Two warm (eastern and central El Niño), two cold
(basin wide and central La Niña) and a neutral reference regimes are
found. Simulated SSTA by the models from the latest Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are then matched to these reference
regimes. This allows for a consistent assessment of the skill of the
models in reproducing the reference regimes over the historical period
and the change in these regimes under the high-warming Shared
Socio-economic Pathway (SSP5.8.5) scenario. Results over the historical
period show that models simulate well the reference regimes with some
discrepancies. Models simulate overly strong and broad ENSO patterns and
have issues in capturing the correct regime seasonality, persistence and
transition between regimes. Some models also have difficulty simulating
the frequency of regimes, the eastern El Niño regime in particular. In
the future, eastern El Niño and central La Niña regimes are expected to
be more frequent accompanied with a less frequent neutral regime. The
central Pacific El Niño and La Niña regimes are projected to increase in
amplitude and variability. Compared to previous studies, our approach
gives a common characterisation across models and observations of the
diversity of the warm and cold phases of ENSO at the same time
established from observations.