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What to do when the F10.7 goes out?
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  • Sean Elvidge,
  • David R. Themens,
  • Matthew Kenneth Brown,
  • Elizabeth Erin Amelia Donegan-Lawley
Sean Elvidge
University of Birmingham

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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David R. Themens
University of Birmingham
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Matthew Kenneth Brown
University of Birmingham
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Elizabeth Erin Amelia Donegan-Lawley
SERENE, University of Birmingham
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Abstract

The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is a critical operational space weather index. However, without a clear backup, any interruption to the service can result in substantial errors in model outputs. In this paper we show the impact of one such outage in March 2022 and present a number of alternative solutions for any future outages. The approach resulting in the smallest reconstruction error of F10.7 uses the solar radio flux observations at alternative wavelengths (the best giving a percentage error of 3.1%). Alternatively, use of Sunspot Number, a regular, robust alternative observation, results in a mean percentage error of 8.2% and is also a reliable fallback solution. Additionally, analysis of the error on the use of the conversion between the 12-month rolling sunspot number (R12) and its conversion to F10.7 as used by the IRI is included.