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Supercritical and homogenous transmission of monkeypox in the capital of China.
  • Yunjun Zhang,
  • Xiao-Hua Zhou
Yunjun Zhang
Peking University School of Public Health

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Xiao-Hua Zhou
Peking University School of Public Health
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Background: Starting from May 31 st, 2023, the local transmission of monkeypox (Mpox) in mainland China began in Beijing. Till now, the transmission characteristics have not been explored. Method: Based on the daily Mpox incidence data in the first three weeks of Beijing (from May 31 st to June 21 st, 2023) , we employed the instant-individual heterogeneity transmission model to simultaneously calculate the effective reproduction number ( R e) and the degree of heterogeneity ( k) of the Beijing epidemic. We additionally simulated the monthly infection size in Beijing from July to September and compared with the reported data to project subsequent transmission dynamics. Results: We estimated R e to be 1.68 [95% HPD:1.12, 2.41], and k to be 2.57 [95% HPD: 0.54, 83.88], suggesting the transmission of Mpox in Beijing was supercritical and didn’t have considerable transmission heterogeneity. We projected that R e fell in the range of 0.95 to 1.0 from July to September, highlighting more efforts needed to further reduce the Mpox transmissibility. Conclusion: Our findings revealed supercritical and homogeneous transmission of the Mpox epidemic in Beijing. Our results may provide reference for understanding and predicting of the on-going Mpox transmission in other regions of China and assess the effect of control measures.
24 Oct 2023Submitted to Journal of Medical Virology
24 Oct 2023Assigned to Editor
24 Oct 2023Submission Checks Completed
24 Oct 2023Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
25 Oct 2023Reviewer(s) Assigned