Optimal Grid Expansion Planning in Power Systems with Surplus Generation
Capacity and Suppressed Demand
Abstract
Abstract: In many developing countries, the construction of transmission
lines often lags behind commissioning of new power plants. This results
in insufficient transmission line capacity to evacuate generated power
to distant load centres. This study aims to address the problem of
overcapacity of installed generation relative to transmission capacity
and demand, arising from the misalignment of investments in the
respective segments. The study proposes coordinated Generation and
Transmission Expansion Planning (GTEP) models that consider surplus
generation capacity while minimizing investment and operating costs to
unlock suppressed customer demand. We develop a multistage stochastic
optimization model for GTEP, as well as isolated Generation Expansion
Planning (GEP) and Transmission Expansion Planning (TEP) models, and
then compare their performance. The models were developed and simulated
using PLEXOS Software by Energy Exemplar. The results show that the
combined GTEP model provides an optimal expansion plan that utilizes
surplus generation capacity and reduces suppressed demand by
prioritizing transmission network reinforcements and then investments in
generation. The TEP model mitigates overcapacity and unserved energy in
some areas, but if not aligned with generation planning, there will be
eventual power supply shortages as demand exceeds generation over time.