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Investigating the propagation of droughts under the influence of climate changes in Luanhe River Basin
  • min li,
  • Zilong Feng,
  • 铭锋 张
min li
Yangzhou University College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Zilong Feng
Yangzhou University College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering
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铭锋 张
Yangzhou University College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering
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Abstract

The analysis of the law of drought propagation under climate change is of great significance for drought early warning and reducing social and economic losses. In spite of large spatiotemporal variability in drought propagation, the propagation probability and threshold from meteorological to hydrological droughts were not examined at seasonal and regional scales over the Luanhe River basin. To estimate the propagation probability and threshold of the Luanhe River basin, the meteorological and hydrological variables were obtained at a grid resolution of 0.25◦ Lat × 0.25◦ Lon in this study. Based on the GAMLSS framework, the stationary model and the non-stationary model were constructed to capture the characteristics of seasonal droughts without considering climate change and considering climate change. Then the Copula model was constructed, and the drought propagation probability and the threshold under stationary and non-stationary conditions were calculated. The results show that, under the combined influence of AMO, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, the propagation probabilities became larger and the propagation thresholds became higher, especially in spring and winter in the upstream and midstream regions. The increase in temperature and the decrease in relative humidity may be the key factors contributing to the occurrence of hydrological drought in the basin.