The diagnostic accuracy of the NICE risk‑stratification algorithm in
predicting pre-eclampsia: a systematic review with meta-analysis
Abstract
Background: Pre-eclampsia is a hypertensive disorder of
pregnancy which, left untreated, can cause significant foeto-maternal
morbidity. Accordingly, the National Institution for Health and Care
Excellence (NICE) recommends that high-risk women be prescribed daily
prophylaxis with 75-150mg aspirin from twelve weeks’ gestation until
delivery. NICE stratifies risk using eleven maternal risk factors;
however, no secondary research has been published evaluating the
diagnostic accuracy of this algorithm. Objectives: Quantify the
sensitivity and specificity of the NICE risk‑stratification algorithm in
predicting pre‑eclampsia in pregnant women ≥16 years. Search
Strategy: PubMed, Cochrane Library and SCOPUS. PROSPERO Registration:
CRD42023437261. Selection Criteria: Papers with a CBEM Level of
Evidence ≤4, published 2010‑2023. Data Collection and Analysis:
20 eligible studies consisting of 892,061 pregnancies were analysed.
Logit-transformed sensitivities and specificities were modelled as
bivariate distributions with random effects. Main Results:
Maximum likelihood estimates for the NICE algorithm’s sensitivity and
specificity were 44.7% (95% CI 32.3 – 57.8) and 88.0% (95% CI
87.4-88.7), respectively. There was significant heterogeneity between
the studies in this analysis (χ 2(17) = 85.05
(p<.0001), I 2=99.8%) and, consequently, a
low degree of certainty in these estimates. Conclusions: The
NICE risk‑stratification algorithm performs remarkably poorly when used
to predict pre‑eclampsia in any of three gestational categories.
Clinicians should advise women that around 1 in 5 high-risk patients and
1 in 25 low-risk patients go on to develop pre‑eclampsia. However,
future studies will likely alter these values and the confidence
therein. Funding: None Key Words: Pre-eclampsia,
High-risk Pregnancy, Sensitivity and Specificity, Predictive Value of
Tests, Clinical Decision Rules.