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Metabolic constraints on the body size scaling of extreme population densities
  • Angel Segura,
  • Gonzalo Perera
Angel Segura
Facultad de Ciencias

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Gonzalo Perera
Universidad de la República, Centro Universitario Regional Este, Modelización y Análisis de Recursos Naturales, Uruguay
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Pest outbreaks, harmful algal blooms, and population collapses are extreme events with critical consequences for ecosystems, highlighting the importance of deciphering the driving ecological mechanisms underlying extreme events. By combining the generalized extreme value (GEV) theory from statistics and the hypothesis of a resource-limited metabolic restriction to population abundance, we evaluated theoretical predictions on the size-scaling and variance of extreme population abundance. Phytoplankton data from the L4 station in the English Channel showed a negative size scaling of the expected value of maxima, whose confidence interval included the predicted metabolic scaling (a = –1). We showed a humped pattern in variance with maxima at intermediate sizes. These results are consistent with the bounded abundance of small-sized populations that are subjected to strong grazing and with the expected decrease in variance towards large sizes. This approach provides unbiased return times, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the timing of bloom formation, and describes a coherent framework in which to explore extreme population densities in natural communities.
23 Nov 2022Submitted to Ecology Letters
29 Nov 2022Submission Checks Completed
29 Nov 2022Assigned to Editor
29 Nov 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
30 Nov 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
12 Jan 2023Editorial Decision: Revise Major
14 Feb 2023Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
14 Feb 20231st Revision Received
14 Feb 2023Submission Checks Completed
14 Feb 2023Assigned to Editor
14 Feb 2023Reviewer(s) Assigned
15 Feb 2023Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
16 Feb 2023Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
16 Feb 20232nd Revision Received
17 Feb 2023Submission Checks Completed
17 Feb 2023Assigned to Editor
17 Feb 2023Reviewer(s) Assigned
16 Mar 2023Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
17 Mar 2023Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
17 Mar 20233rd Revision Received
20 Mar 2023Submission Checks Completed
20 Mar 2023Assigned to Editor
20 Mar 2023Editorial Decision: Accept