Distribution Simulation of Potential Habitats of the Medicinal and
Endemic Plant, Artemisia Khorasanica, for Landscape Conservation and
Restoration of Rangelands under Future Climatic Scenarios
Abstract
This research has been done for several purposes: A) Simulating the
distribution of potential habitats of the medicinal and endemic plant,
Artemisia Khorasanica, B) Applying MaxEnt model utilizing a set of
effective soil, geomorphological, climatic, and social-ecological
variables; C) Identifying spatial options for rangeland restoration
under future climatic scenarios, and D) Landscape evaluating and
analyzing of habitat hot patches in scenarios. Alqurat basin is one of
the habitats of the study species in South Khorasan province, Iran. The
present study is conducted based on field and laboratory operations
along with modeling in GIS (Geographic Information System) using a
multi-stage methodology. The results of the Jackknife test showed that
the variables of distance from dry rivers, roads and villages, slope
direction, amount of silt and sand in the soil had the most significant
impact on predicting the potential habitat of the study plant,
respectively. The relatively small fluctuations between the areas of
high- and medium-quality simulated habitats in RCPs scenarios indicate
that this plant can survive in different climatic conditions and is not
highly dependent on climate change. In other words, such conservation
and restoration can be considered as insurance for ecosystems of arid
and semi-arid regions since the possibility of damage due to climate
change as predicted in the scenarios will be minimized. This research
examined two options for rangeland ecosystems management, including
“mere conservation” and “conservation along with restoration”, using
landscape analysis. All metrics showed the superiority of the second
option, which suggests that the sustainable conservation of hot patches
depends on their interconnection and the maintenance of their ecological
network connectivity. The results of this study might help the in-charge
organizations and departments to identify the best potential habitat for
A. Khorasanica and perform restorative operations in those areas with
more confidence.