Modelling and analysis of temperature and rainfall variability impact on
the coffee berry borer infestation with optimal control
Abstract
This study focuses on a nonlinear deterministic mathematical model for
the impact of temperature and rainfall variability on coffee berry borer
(Hypothenemus hampei). In the model analysis, CBB free and coexistence
equilibria are computed. The basic reproduction numbers at a minimum and
maximum temperature and rainfall are derived. The qualitative analysis
of the model revealed the scenario for equilibria together with basic
reproduction numbers. The local stability of equilibria is established
through the Jacobian matrix and the Routh Hurwitz-criteria, while the
global stability of equilibria is demonstrated using an appropriate
Lyapunov function. The normalized sensitivity analysis has also been
performed to observe the impact of different parameters on basic
reproduction numbers. The proposed model is extended into an optimal
control problem by incorporating two control variables, namely, the
preventive measure variable based on the separation of susceptible
coffee berries from contacting the pests based on biological control and
an increase in the death rate of colonising females of CBB based on
chemical control. Optimal disease control analysis is examined using
Pontryagin’s minimum principle. Finally, the numerical simulations are
performed based on analytical results and are discussed quantitatively.
Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of control strategies to determine
the best approach to minimize the CBB burden was studied. The finding of
this study shows that the use of chemical pesticides is very effective
to combat pests with minimum costs.