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Impact of climate warming on phenological asynchrony of plankton dynamics across Europe
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  • Enzo Gronchi,
  • Dietmar Straile,
  • Sebastian Diehl,
  • Klaus Joehnk,
  • Frank Peeters
Enzo Gronchi
University of Konstanz

Corresponding Author:enzo.gronchi@uni-konstanz.de

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Dietmar Straile
University of Konstanz
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Sebastian Diehl
UmeƄ University,
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Klaus Joehnk
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Land and Water
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Frank Peeters
University of Konstanz
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Abstract

Climate warming alters the seasonal timing of biological events. This raises concerns that species-specific responses to warming may de-synchronize co-evolved consumer-resource phenologies, resulting in trophic mismatch and altered ecosystem dynamics. Here we explore effects of warming on the temporal coherence of two key phenological events in lakes across Europe: The onset of the phytoplankton spring bloom and the spring/summer maximum of the grazer Daphnia. Simulation of 1,891,744 lake years revealed that, under the current climate, the phenological delay between the two events varies greatly (20-190 days) across lake types and geographic locations. Warming moves both phenological events forward in time and can predictably lengthen or shorten the delay between them by up to 60 days. Our findings expose large extant variation in phenological synchrony of planktonic organisms, provide quantitative predictions of its dependence on physical lake properties and geographic location, and highlight research needs concerning its ecological consequences.
21 Jul 2022Submitted to Ecology Letters
25 Jul 2022Submission Checks Completed
25 Jul 2022Assigned to Editor
05 Aug 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
30 Aug 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
04 Sep 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Major
20 Nov 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
20 Nov 20221st Revision Received
21 Nov 2022Assigned to Editor
21 Nov 2022Submission Checks Completed
24 Nov 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
27 Dec 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
08 Jan 2023Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
08 Jan 20232nd Revision Received
09 Jan 2023Submission Checks Completed
09 Jan 2023Assigned to Editor
10 Jan 2023Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
20 Jan 20233rd Revision Received
20 Jan 2023Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
23 Jan 2023Submission Checks Completed
23 Jan 2023Assigned to Editor
23 Jan 2023Reviewer(s) Assigned
31 Jan 2023Editorial Decision: Accept