loading page

Mathematical modelling of respiratory viral infection and applications to SARS-CoV-2 progression
  • +1
  • Latifa Ait Mahiout,
  • Nikolai Bessonov,
  • Bogdan Kazmierczak,
  • Vitaly Volpert
Latifa Ait Mahiout
Ecole Normale Superieue Kouba Sciences de l'Education

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Nikolai Bessonov
Institut Problem Masinovedenia RAN
Author Profile
Bogdan Kazmierczak
Institute of Fundamental Technological Research Polish Academy of Sciences
Author Profile
Vitaly Volpert
University of Lyon
Author Profile


Viral infection in cell culture and tissue is modeled with delay reaction-diffusion equations. It is shown that progression of viral infection can be characterized by the viral replication number, time-dependent viral load and the speed of infection spreading. These three characteristics are determined through the original model parameters including the rates of cell infection and of virus production in the infected cells. The clinical manifestations of viral infection, depending on tissue damage, correlate with the speed of infection spreading, while the infectivity of a respiratory infection depends on the viral load in the upper respiratory tract. Parameter determination from the experiments on Delta and Omicron variants allows the estimation of the infection spreading speed and viral load. Different variants of the SARS-CoV-2 infection are compared confirming that Omicron is more infectious and has less severe symptoms than Delta variant. Within the same variant, spreading speed (symptoms) correlates with viral load allowing prognosis of disease progression.
26 Feb 2022Submitted to Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences
28 Feb 2022Submission Checks Completed
28 Feb 2022Assigned to Editor
06 Apr 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
25 Jun 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
19 Jul 20221st Revision Received
20 Jul 2022Submission Checks Completed
20 Jul 2022Assigned to Editor
20 Jul 2022Editorial Decision: Accept