ENSO-linked climate change on rodent population dynamics in wild natural
plague foci of southern China from 1878-2019
Abstract
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-linked climate patterns have been
known to be associated with several rodent species, but the effects of
ENSO on rodent populations at both the spatial and temporal scales in
wild natural plague foci of southern China, have not been thoroughly
studied. In this study, we investigated the possible natural
environmental factors relating ENSO, precipitation, relative humidity
and surface temperatures to the populations of 2 allopatric rodent
species (Apodemus chevrieri and Rattus tanezumi) in Jianchuan county the
most important core area of the natural foci of wild plague in southern
China from 1978 to 2019. Our results indicated that ENSO-driven climate
factors, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), rainfall, surface
temperature, and other biological factors, all affected the rodent
population densities. We found that sympatric rodent species with
different life histories respond differently to precipitation and
surface temperature, while SOI had a similar effect on the population
densities of these two species, and the effect of SOI on rodent
population densities was time-dependent. Additionally, nonlinear
negative relationships were established between the population density
of rodents and SOI, and El Niño events were found to be beneficial for
increasing the rodent density, whereas La Niña events were favorable for
decreasing the rodent density. The cross-wavelet analysis results
revealed that the rodent population density oscillated in an anti-phase
pattern with SOI over a period of approximately 2-3 years before 1995
but has oscillated in-phase with SOI over the same periods since 1995.
These results indicate that ENSO-driven climate variations may
significantly impact rodent population dynamics in Jianchuan county, and
SOI, a large-scale climate factor, has the same effect on sympatric
rodent species with different life histories.