A prediction model based on functional mitral regurgitation for the
recurrence of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation(PAF) after post-circular
pulmonary vein radiofrequency ablation (CPVA)
【Abstract】Aim To construct a prediction model based on
functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) in patients with paroxysmal atrial
fibrillation (PAF) for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after
the post-circular pulmonary vein radiofrequency ablation (CPVA).
Methods We retrospectively analyzed 289 patients with PAF who
underwent CPVA for the first time . The patients were randomly divided
into modeling group and verification group at the ratio of 75:25. In the
modeling group, the multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze
and construct a prediction model for post-CPVA recurrence in PAF
patients, which was then validated in the verification group.
Results (1) After 3-6 months of follow-up, the patients were
divided into sinus rhythm group (252 cases) and recurrence group (24
cases); (2) In the modeling group, the age, LAD(left atrial diameter)
and degree of MR (mild, moderate, severe) were higher in recurrence
group than that of the sinus rhythm group, and the left atrial appendage
emptying velocity (LAAV) was lower in recurrence group (all
P<0.05). (3) A model for predicting the recurrence of
PAF after radiofrequency ablation was constructed in the modeling group.
The equation was: Logit(P) = -3.253 + 0.092 × age + 1.263 × mild MR +
2.325 × moderate MR + 5.111 ×severe MR - 0.113 × LAAV. The area under
the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.889 in modeling group and 0.866 in
verification group, and the difference was not statistically significant
( P>0.05). Conclusion: The prediction model
of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after CPVA in PAF patients has
good predictive efficacy, high specificity and accuracy.