Joint estimation of parameter and state with hybrid data assimilation
and machine learning
Abstract
For parameter and state estimation problems, when observation is sparse
and has large error covariance, the estimation results tend to have bias
and lead to inaccurate forecasts further. To reduce the bias, we propose
to construct a proposal density function with a smaller covariance for
the particle filter by conditionally iterating the ensemble transform
Kalman filter. First an ensemble is obtained by the ensemble transform
Kalman filter. If the distance between the current model forecast
(background) and the ensemble members is larger than a predefined
threshold then repeats applying the ensemble transform Kalman filter to
generate a new model forecast ensemble. Finally, update the weight of
ensemble members with the particle filter. We use deep residual neural
networks to learn a surrogate model of the assimilation process and
combine it with data assimilation method to obtain better forecasts.
Experiments results show that our method can effectively reduce the bias
compared to the ensemble transform Kalman filter and weighted ensemble
transform Kalman filter, especially in case of sparse observations. The
results also show that when the observation frequency is low, using a
deep residual neural network as surrogate model to generate data for the
assimilation process gives more accurate state forecasts than
conventional data assimilation method.