Range Shift in Response to Climate Change of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus
Based on Species Redundancy
Abstract
The presence of the Chinese caterpillar fungus (CCF) depends on the
distribution of its host insects and host plants. However, its
distribution pattern in response to climate change and interspecific
relationships in geographical distribution is unknown. We used the
MaxEnt model to obtain areas suitable for the CCF, considering its host
insects and host plants under different historical climate backgrounds.
We then superimposed and analyzed them to explore the range shift in
response to climate change of Chinese caterpillar fungus based on
species redundancy. From the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to 2050, the
suitable distribution pattern of the CCF is estimated to change from
fragmentized to concentrated and connected. The high redundancy area
(HRA) continued to increase from the Middle Holocene (MH) to the present
and 2050, with an increased area of 31.46×104 km2. The suitable area
moved to the northwest and the total movement distance of its average
coordinates was about 500 km. The altitude of the suitable area
increased continuously from the LGM to the present and to 2050, and the
average altitude of HRA increased from 2740.89 m (LGM) to 4246.76 m
(2050). The distribution pattern and changes of CCF under different
climatic conditions provides a reference for the current and future
geographical regional planning for conservation and sustainable
utilization. The distribution pattern similarity of the CCF suitable
area, suitable area for host insects, and host plants HRA of
distribution area, might be the result of their long-term co-evolution.
The decreasing trend of CCF yield under human disturbance was not as
severe as expected, suggesting that climate change may be beneficial to
distribution expansion of the CCF.