Abstract
Understanding the impacts and constraints of climate change on the
potential geographic distribution of wild Akebia trifoliata is crucial
for its sustainable management and economic development as a medicinal
material or fruit. In this study, according to the first-hand
information obtained on-the-spot investigation, the geographic
distribution and response to climate factors of Akebia trifoliata were
studied by the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS. The genetic diversity and
population structure of 21 natural populations of Akebia trifoliata were
studied by SSR markers. The results showed that precipitation and
temperature were the two most important climatic factors that restrict
the geographic distribution of Akebia trifoliata. Under the current
climate scenario, the suitable growth regions of Akebia trifoliata in
China were 91.7-121.9 °E and 21.6-37.5 °N. Combined with the
evolutionary relationship and prediction results, 21 populations of
Akebia trifoliata tended to migrate to the north. In the scenarios
(SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) of higher greenhouse gas emission
concentration, the distribution area of Akebia trifoliata continued to
expand, while in the low concentration greenhouse gas emission scenario
(SSP1-2.6), the distribution area of Akebia trifoliata remained stable.
The distribution center of Akebia trifoliata in China will shift to high
latitude regions with the increase of temperature in the future. The
results evaluated the impact of climate factors on the spatial
distribution of wild Akebia trifoliata, displayed the possible changes
of geographical distribution of Akebia trifoliata under different
climate scenarios, and provided scientific evidence for durative
protection and supervise of Akebia trifoliata.