Simulation of agro-ecosystem service value in oasis area of lower
reaches of Tarim River
Abstract
Based on the relationship between the service value of each component of
agro-ecosystem and its corresponding land cover, the service value of
agro-ecosystem in oasis area of lower reaches of Tarim River was
analyzed. Using the land cover data of 2000, 2010 and 2020, and setting
two scenarios in the FLUS model to simulate the land cover change of the
study area in 2030. According to the forecast results of land cover, the
the value of agro-ecological service was calculated and the sensitivity
was analyzed. Results showed the following: (1) The Kappa coefficients
and overall accuracy of 2010 land cover models simulated by FLUS are
0.8429 and 92.55% , indicating that the model has appropriate
simulation accuracy. (2) The proportion of farmland, grassland, water
body and artificial surface increased from 4.28%, 22.26%, 2.18% and
1.16% in 2000 to 6.63%, 25.86%, 10.96% and 0.48% in 2030 benchmark
scenario, respectively. On the contrary, the shrub land and barren land
decreased from 1.07% and 70.75% in 2000 to 0.7% and 55.44% in 2030
benchmark scenario, respectively.(3) The agro-ecosystem service value of
benchmark scenario and ecological protection scenario are CN¥6.781×109
and CN¥6.937×109 in 2030, respectively. The practice has proved that the
ecological water conveyance project is very necessary to improve the
agricultural ecological environment in oasis area of lower reaches of
Tarim River. This study can provide reference for the research on the
agro-ecosystem service value of oases in inland river basins of China
and Central Asia.