Assessing Land Use/Cover dynamics of the Ngorongoro world heritage site
in Tanzania using a hybrid CA–Markov model
Abstract
Abstract: In this study, land-use/cover pattern of the UNESCO world
heritage site, Ngorongoro Conservation Area; is analyzed using the
CA–Markov model with the help of RS and GIS. Hybrid classification
techniques ware used to monitor land use/cover changes, using Landsat
images for 1995, 2005 and 2016. The CA-Markov model is then used to
predict the land use /cover maps for 2025 and 2035. The highest net gain
from 1995-2016 observed in cultivated land (6.55%), grassland (2.68%),
bare land (1.82%), bushland (0.48%) and built-up area (0.01%), and
the net loss found in woodland (8.38%), forest (1.52%), wetland
(1.41%), and water cover area (0.24%). However, reduction is expected
in bushland (4.88%), forest (0.82%), water (0.77%) and woodland
(0.07%) during 2025-2035 with increase in cultivated land (2.73%),
grassland (1.19%), bare land (1.79%) and built-up area (0.14%). As
per the current trend in land use management, forest cover is
significantly declining; leading to the loss in the ecological values of
the Ngorongoro Conservation Area and its surroundings. The results of
this study can be used directly by the policymakers to plan appropriate
conservation schemes to endorse improved land use management practices
for ecological protection of the heritage site.