Leukemia mortality in children and adolescents from Latin America:
Trends and predictions to 2032.
Abstract
Background: Leukemia remains the leading cause of cancer-related death
in Latin American (LA) children and adolescents. The aim is to evaluate
leukemia mortality trends in children and adolescents (0-19y) from 13 LA
countries in the last two decades and to predict mortality to 2032.
Methods: We retrieved cancer mortality data through World Health
Organization Mortality Database. Age-standardized (world standard
population) rates were computed for 13 LA countries 2000–2017.
Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, and Nordpred was
utilized for the calculation of predictions. Results: Ecuador and Mexico
had the highest mortality among LA countries. For boys, Ecuador
continues to increase in 1.5% annually, while Mexico reported a decline
by −0.3% annually. For both genders, Nicaragua showed a high rise, for
boys (APC= +3.1) and for girls (APC= +2.3), while Puerto Rico
experienced a large decrease, for boys (APC= −9.7), and girls ( APC=
−6.0). The comparison between the last observed and projected period
showed a greater increase in the risk of death from leukemia in Ecuador
and Argentina for boys, and Nicaragua and Peru for girls. In Puerto
Rico, there was a reduction in the percentage of cases associated with
changes in size and population structure, despite the increased risk of
death from leukemia. Conclusion: Ecuador and Mexico continue to report
the highest mortality for leukemia among LA countries. However, in the
last years, Mexico has shown favorable changes in mortality. Special
attention should be given to Ecuador due to the significant increase in
mortality rates.