loading page

Modeling COVID-19: Forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey
  • +1
  • ibrahim Aslan,
  • Mahir Demir,
  • Michael Wise,
  • Suzanne Lenhart
ibrahim Aslan
Batman University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Mahir Demir
Michigan State University
Author Profile
Michael Wise
The University of Tennessee Knoxville
Author Profile
Suzanne Lenhart
The University of Tennessee Knoxville
Author Profile


As the pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) rages throughout the world, accurate modeling of the dynamics thereof is essential. However, since the availability and quality of data varies dramatically from region to region, accurate modeling directly from a global perspective is difficult, if not altogether impossible. Nevertheless, via local data collected by certain regions, it is possible to develop accurate local prediction tools, which may be coupled to develop global models. In this study, we analyze the dynamics of local outbreaks of COVID-19 via a coupled system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Utilizing the large amount of data available from the ebbing outbreak in Hubei, China as a testbed, we estimate the basic reproductive number, R0 of COVID-19 and predict the total cases, total deaths, and other features of the Hubei outbreak with a high level of accuracy. Through numerical experiments, we observe the effects of quarantine, social distancing, and COVID-19 testing on the dynamics of the outbreak. Using knowledge gleaned from the Hubei outbreak, we apply our model to analyze the dynamics of outbreak in Turkey. We provide forecasts for the peak of the outbreak and the total number of cases/deaths in Turkey, for varying levels of social distancing, quarantine, and COVID-19 testing.
12 Apr 2020Submitted to Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences
18 Apr 2020Submission Checks Completed
18 Apr 2020Assigned to Editor
25 May 2020Reviewer(s) Assigned
08 Feb 2021Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
12 Feb 2021Editorial Decision: Revise Major
08 Apr 20211st Revision Received
08 Apr 2021Assigned to Editor
08 Apr 2021Submission Checks Completed
08 Apr 2021Reviewer(s) Assigned
14 Dec 2021Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
15 Dec 2021Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
25 Jan 20222nd Revision Received
28 Jan 2022Assigned to Editor
28 Jan 2022Submission Checks Completed
04 Feb 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
04 Feb 2022Editorial Decision: Accept