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When record breaking heat waves should not surprise: skewness, heavy tails and implications for risk assessment
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  • Nels Bjarke,
  • Joseph Barsugli,
  • Martin Hoerling,
  • Xiao-Wei Quan,
  • Ben Livneh
Nels Bjarke
University of Colorado Boulder

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Joseph Barsugli
Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Martin Hoerling
Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Xiao-Wei Quan
Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Ben Livneh
University of Colorado Boulder
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Abstract

Extreme heat waves beset western North America during 2021, including a 46.7°C (116°F) observation in Portland, Oregon, an astonishing 5°C above the previous record. Using Portland as an example we provide evidence for a latent risk of extreme heat waves in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and along the west coast of the United States where a maritime climate and its intrinsic variations yield a positive skewness in summertime daily maximum temperatures. A generalized Pareto extreme value analysis yields a heavy tailed distribution with a return period of 300-1000 years, indicating that, while rare, the event was possible, contrary to prior claims that the event was “virtually impossible”. We demonstrate that the extreme temperatures can be explained by the coincident extreme values of geopotential heights, and that the relationship between heights and extreme temperatures has not materially changed over the observational record. The dynamical nature of the event along with recent developments in stochastic theory justifies the use of skewed and heavy-tailed distributions which may provide the basis for a more proactive approach to managing the risk of future events.