Abstract
Here we propose a methodology for Earthquake Early Warning able issuing
the alert based on the real-time estimation of the epicentral area where
a ground Intensity measure is expected to exceed a user-set ground
shaking level. The method provides in output a P-wave-based,
time-evolutive “early” shake map. The P-wave displacement, velocity
and acceleration amplitudes are jointly measured on a progressively
expanded time window while the earthquake location and magnitude are
evaluated using data at near source stations. A retrospective analysis
of the 2016, Mw 6.5 Central Italy earthquake records shows that the
method naturally accounts for effects related to the earthquake rupture
directivity and spatial variability of strong ground motion related to
source and path and site effects. Five seconds after the origin time the
simulated performance of the system in predicting the event impact is
very high: in the 40 km-radius area that suffered an Intensity MCS
VIII-IX, 41 over 42 strong-motion instrumented sites would have been
successfully alerted, with only one false alert. Even considering the
15-km-radius blind-zone, a 15-55 km wide annular area would have
received the alert 2-14.5 sec before the occurrence of the strong ground
shaking. The proposed EEW method evolves with time in a way that it
minimizes the missed alarms while increasing successful alarms and to a
lesser extent false alarms, so it is necessary for the end-user to
accept these eventualities and account for them in a probabilistic
decision scheme depending on the specific safety actuation measure to be
undertaken in real-time