Abstract
A volcanic eruption is usually preceded by seismic precursors, but their
interpretation and use for forecasting the eruption onset time remain a
challenge. Eruption processes in geysers are similar to volcanoes, but
occur more frequently. Therefore, geysers are useful sites for testing
new forecasting methods. We tested the application of Permutation
Entropy (PE) as a robust method to assess the complexity in seismic
recordings of the Strokkur geyser, Iceland. Strokkur features several
minute-long eruptive cycles, enabling us to verify in 63 recorded cycles
whether PE behaves consistently from one eruption to the next one. We
performed synthetic tests to understand the effect of different
parameter settings in the PE calculation. Our application to Strokkur
shows a distinct, repeating PE pattern consistent with previously
identified phases in the eruptive cycle. We find a systematic increase
in PE within the last 15s before the eruption, indicating that an
eruption will occur. We quantified the predictive power of PE, showing
that PE performs better than seismic signal strength or quiescence when
it comes to forecasting eruptions.