Abstract
Model dependence in simulated responses to stratospheric aerosol
injection (SAI) is a major uncertainty surrounding the potential
implementation of this solar climate intervention strategy. We identify
here large differences in the aerosol mass distributions between two
recently produced climate model SAI large ensembles, despite using
similar climate targets, with the goal of understanding the drivers of
such differences. Using a hierarchy of recently produced simulations, we
identify three main contributors including: 1) the rapid adjustment of
clouds and rainfall to elevated levels of carbon dioxide, 2) the
associated low-frequency dynamical responses in the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation, and 3) the contrasts in future climate forcing
scenarios. Each contribution also represents a potentially irreducible
uncertainty over the likely timeframe of a potential SAI deployment if a
1.5C target is to be met and the results thus suggest the need for
significant flexibility in the deployment of SAI if enacted.