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Global Monsoon Changes with Specific Warming Levels in Two Large-Ensemble Simulations
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  • Zhibo Li,
  • Yongyun Hu,
  • Ying Sun,
  • Wen Chen,
  • Ming Sun,
  • Delong Wang,
  • Yihui Ding
Zhibo Li
Peking University

Corresponding Author:zbli@stu.pku.edu.cn

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Yongyun Hu
Peking University
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Ying Sun
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration
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Wen Chen
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Ming Sun
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
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Delong Wang
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
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Yihui Ding
National Climate Center´╝îChina Meteorological Administration
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Abstract

Projection of the global monsoon (GM) system is essential for water resource management, food security, and policymaking. Here we investigate projected changes in global monsoon area (GMA) and global monsoon intensity (GMI) with specific global warming levels, using two datasets of large-ensemble simulations. Both datasets project quasi-linear increases in GMA and GMI with global warming. The GMI over Northern-Hemisphere continents is consistently enhanced, while the GMI over Southern-Hemisphere continents are dominated by opposite changes in the GMI over South America. In addition, both datasets show enhanced monsoon intensity over most parts of regional monsoon domains, except for the North American monsoon. The different changes of the North American monsoon are up on projected temperature differences between the equatorial eastern Pacific and the tropical Atlantic. Moisture budget shows that the thermodynamic component always makes a large positive contribution to the increase in monsoon precipitation, while evaporation has a smaller positive contribution, except for the East Asian monsoon. The contribution of the dynamic component shows large differences for different regional monsoons. Therefore, the different changes in regional monsoon precipitation are mainly caused by the dynamic component.