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ClimateBench: A benchmark dataset for data-driven climate projections
  • +15
  • Duncan Watson-Parris,
  • Yuhan Rao,
  • Dirk Olivié,
  • Øyvind Seland,
  • Peer J Nowack,
  • Gustau Camps-Valls,
  • Philip Stier,
  • Shahine Bouabid,
  • Maura Dewey,
  • Emilie Fons,
  • Jessenia Gonzalez,
  • Paula Harder,
  • Kai Jeggle,
  • Julien Lenhardt,
  • Peter Manshausen,
  • Maria Novitasari,
  • Lucile Ricard,
  • Carla Roesch
Duncan Watson-Parris
University of Oxford, University of Oxford

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Yuhan Rao
North Carolina State University, North Carolina State University
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Dirk Olivié
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norwegian Meteorological Institute
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Øyvind Seland
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
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Peer J Nowack
University of East Anglia, University of East Anglia
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Gustau Camps-Valls
Universitat de València, Universitat de València
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Philip Stier
University of Oxford, University of Oxford
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Shahine Bouabid
University of Oxford, University of Oxford
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Maura Dewey
Stockholm University, Stockholm University
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Emilie Fons
ETH Zurich, ETH Zurich
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Jessenia Gonzalez
Universität Leipzig, Universität Leipzig
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Paula Harder
Fraunhofer ITWM, Fraunhofer ITWM
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Kai Jeggle
ETH Zurich, ETH Zurich
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Julien Lenhardt
Universität Leipzig, Universität Leipzig
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Peter Manshausen
University of Oxford, University of Oxford
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Maria Novitasari
University College London, University College London
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Lucile Ricard
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
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Carla Roesch
University of Edinburgh, University of Edinburgh
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Abstract

Many different emission pathways exist that are compatible with the Paris climate agreement, and many more are possible that miss that target. While some of the most complex Earth System Models have simulated a small selection of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, it is impractical to use these expensive models to fully explore the space of possibilities. Such explorations therefore mostly rely on one-dimensional impulse response models, or simple pattern scaling approaches to approximate the physical climate response to a given scenario. Here we present ClimateBench - a benchmarking framework based on a suite of CMIP, AerChemMIP and DAMIP simulations performed by a full complexity Earth System Model, and a set of baseline machine learning models that emulate its response to a variety of forcers. These emulators can predict annual mean global distributions of temperature, diurnal temperature range and precipitation (including extreme precipitation) given a wide range of emissions and concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and aerosols, allowing them to efficiently probe previously unexplored scenarios. We discuss the accuracy and interpretability of these emulators and consider their robustness to physical constraints such as total energy conservation. Future opportunities incorporating such physical constraints directly in the machine learning models and using the emulators for detection and attribution studies are also discussed. This opens a wide range of opportunities to improve prediction, consistency and mathematical tractability. We hope that by laying out the principles of climate model emulation with clear examples and metrics we encourage others to tackle this important and demanding challenge.