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Climate change and drought amplify the potential for uncontrollable fires in Nepal
  • +10
  • Binod Pokharel,
  • Jacob Stuivenvolt Allen,
  • Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang,
  • Shankar Sharma,
  • Matthew LaPlante,
  • R. R. Gillies,
  • Sujan Khanal,
  • Michael F Wehner,
  • Alan M. Rhoades,
  • Kalpana Hamal,
  • Wan-Yu Liu,
  • Sarbajit Mukherjee,
  • Deepak Aryal
Binod Pokharel
Tribhuvan University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jacob Stuivenvolt Allen
Utah State University
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Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang
Utah State University
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Shankar Sharma
Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology,Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
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Matthew LaPlante
Utah State Univeristy
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R. R. Gillies
Utah State University
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Sujan Khanal
Kathmandu Institute of Applied Sciences
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Michael F Wehner
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (DOE)
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Alan M. Rhoades
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
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Kalpana Hamal
International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 9804, Beijing 100029, China
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Wan-Yu Liu
National Chung Hsing University
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Sarbajit Mukherjee
Utah State University
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Deepak Aryal
Tribhuvan University
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Abstract

In 2021, Nepal underwent its most severe fire season, resulting in a fire rate 10 times greater than the historical average in many areas of the country with record-high air pollution levels. Leading the fire outbreaks in March of 2021, the country experienced an extreme precipitation deficit and drought in the post-monsoon season. Current community forest management practices and resultant forest growth may have exacerbated the conflagration, but an analysis using observational, reanalysis, and climate model ensemble data indicates that climate variability and climate change induced severe drought conditions that resulted in the anomalous fire season. While warning of the likely re-occurrence of extremely active fire seasons in Nepal through the end of the 21st century, this research also proposes a statistical model for sub-seasonal prediction that could help mitigate the projected effects of the drought-fire paradigm.